Ministry is Getting Older, Perhaps it’s Not a Crisis.

Recently, I listened to a seasoned minister elaborate from the pulpit on a concerning trend in the ministry world. His concern was a decline in the number of young ministers entering the clergy. While the call to serve has remained constant, the number of young individuals answering this call has significantly decreased. His research concluded that elderly ministers are not providing a safe place for mentoring young men. He blamed older ministers for the decline. It is a fact that pastors and licensed ministers are trending older, and recent statistics paint a clear picture of the decline in young ministers entering into ministry. Perhaps we should look at the numbers before we launch new initiatives and programs. National straw polls within politics have shown us that survey questions, omitted data, and additional metrics can be manipulated intentionally or through ignorance.

First, let’s examine the 3 typical metrics used to show decline:

• Aging Clergy: According to a study by the Hartford Institute for Religion Research, the average age of clergy members in many denominations has steadily increased over the past few decades. The common assumption is that older ministers are stubbornly holding onto their position.

  • Possible reason:

    • Life span has increased dramatically.

    • According to data from the Population Division of the United Nations, there were 89,739 centenarians (someone over 100 years old) living in the United States in 2021, nearly twice as many as 20 years ago. Globally, life expectancy has increased by more than 6 years between 2000 and 2019 (from 66.8 years in 2000 to 73.4 years in 2019). While healthy life expectancy (HALE) has also increased by 8% from 58.3 in 2000 to 63.7 in 2019, this was due to declining mortality rather than reduced years lived with disability.

    • Contrary to promoted ideas of a world overpopulation crisis, we are globally trending towards an underpopulation crisis. According to Pew Research[1], the number of babies born is decreasing every year. This means that despite large gatherings like NAYC, there are fewer youth than ever before. Pew acknowledges that several states with the largest decline in birthrates have maintained a large population with migration and the increased lifespan of the baby boomer generation.

    • Even with COVID death metrics, the elderly demographic is growing. By 2040, about one in five Americans will be age 65 or older, up from about one in eight in 2000. Consider this chart from Pew Research, which shows the decline of births by each U.S. state.

• Solution: It may sound strange, but perhaps we should encourage our church members to have more babies for the sake of the gospel.

• Fewer Seminary Graduates: Seminaries and theological institutions are reporting a decline in the number of graduates, especially among those under the age of 35. This trend is consistent across various denominations and traditions.

  • Possible Reason:

    • Fewer babies equals fewer college graduates. We should also consider the popularity of online education. 2020 saw record enrollment, and universities have launched new online programs to meet this increased demand. From doctoral students to lifelong learners, people increasingly access online tools to learn and acquire new skills.

    • There are more online academic opportunities available today than ever before. According to Dr. James Emery White (former president of Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary), seminaries are struggling to survive due to declining birthrates and increased secularization in the U.S. He references “4 million fewer people in Gen Z than in the millennial generation.”

    • Within the Pentecostal movement, we have (at times) promoted Academic achievement over ministerial accomplishments. Many professors teaching ministry at national seminaries have little to show in the arena of ministerial experience or success (Translation: they have no corn-in-the-crib). Some studies by the Barna Group theorize that a lack of ministerial accomplishment could lower theological students’ motivation to follow the theoretical example of their academic mentors.

• Solution: introduce more diversity of churches, ministries and ministers as case studies in revival. Expose seminary students to the diversity of successful ministries within the organizational fellowship, with no regards to a lack of connection with national leaders. Promote participation of local pastors in seminary learning. Create nationally funded grants and/or underwritten learning experiences for older pastors and they will send more students to seminary. Most seminaries require a pastor's approval for student admission. Increased pastoral participation will produce more students from their local church.

• Lower involvement (or interest) by younger ministers in organizational structure: Some officials claim that pastors are not encouraging ministers to attend local, district, or national business meetings.

  • Possible Reason:

    • Politics. A recent survey of 1,000 Gen Z and millennial consumers found that the Gen Z and Millennial generation are more intelligent and more skeptical than previous generations. The 22-38 demographic believes that religious organizations are systemically centralizing authority. Their belief is based on increased practices of boards making more decisions before meetings, such as pre-conference appointments or nominations. Some recent electoral innovations were implemented as meeting time-savers; however, their inclusion discourages young potential participants. Some Barna research also implies that the appearance of nepotism is a major deterrent to Millennial & GenZ participation.

• Pragmatic solutions could include:

  • Establish absolute term limits for religious leaders. No one is irreplaceable except Jesus. We should remember that younger ministers can do the math. When elected leaders stay in organizational offices for 10+ years, the chances of their generational participation plummet. We must value diversity, not familial legacies. This principle does not apply to local church leadership (pastors). Pew research suggests that pastors should strive for longevity, but establish a transition plan by age 65 which utilizes an ongoing respectful mentoring relationship between the retiring pastor and the leader who replaces him.

  • Practice greater transparency with ministerial organization offerings. For example, recent record-breaking offering trends rely heavily on the efforts and sacrifices of youth, yet many districts report operating in a deficit. More and more money is allocated to cover administration and executive salaries and expenses. The larger the youth-driven offerings, the more return youth should expect from local ministries. National youth leaders should remember that all monies come from the grassroots, not the executive offices. In other words, allocation isn’t giving national money to local causes but deciding how much of the locally raised funds HQ will keep.

  • Significant financial allocations could be given to young home missionaries and evangelists. Ministers who receive help when they are starting in ministry will likely return the sacrificial service when they mature and have grown their local ministry.

  • Give funds to established local ministries instead of creating new and untested programs or events. All smoke need not come from the organizational chimney. Voluntarily (without request) fund churches or ministers meeting needs without demanding control of the ministry. *If a ministry violates organizational values or doctrine, funds can (and should) be withheld. It is unhealthy and unnecessary to create expensive organizational administration for ministry wheels that are already moving forward. Just fund what is already being done at the local level instead of creating competing ministry departments/events.

Why should we care about any of this?

The decline of young ministers entering into ministry carries several implications:

1. Leadership Gap: With an aging clergy and a dwindling pool of young ministers, there is a looming leadership gap in religious institutions.

2. Innovation and Adaptation: Young ministers often bring fresh perspectives and innovative ideas. Their absence in ministry roles may hinder the ability of religious organizations to adapt to contemporary challenges and connect with younger demographics.

3. Mentorship and Succession: A shortage of young ministers can disrupt the mentorship and succession planning within religious communities, making it difficult to pass down the wisdom and traditions of faith.

4. Diversity and Inclusion: Younger ministers often bring a more diverse set of experiences and perspectives, contributing to the inclusivity and relevance of religious institutions. Their absence may affect efforts to engage with a broader community.

5. Community Outreach: Young ministers are often at the forefront of community outreach and social justice initiatives. Their decreased presence may impact the ability of religious institutions to address pressing societal issues.

Summary:

The decline of young ministers entering ministry is a complex issue with far-reaching implications for religious institutions and communities. It is imperative for religious organizations to actively address this trend by fostering environments that encourage and support participation of Millineal and Gen Z ministers. Only by recognizing and responding to this trend can religious institutions ensure their continued vitality and relevance in a changing world.

Dr. Robert L McKee